1.1 What Is Rolesia?


Rolesia is a web-based macroeconomic simulation which has been in development since 2003 and is forecast to be on offer to customers world wide by autumn 2009. Rolesia is a free, fun and strategic web simulation for all who enjoy strategy simulations, and for all wishing to discover and understand the policy tools on offer to Governments and Central Banks around the world. The purpose of the software is to help the world-wide population understand the complexity of the world economy, and also to understand the power behind governments' fiscal and the central banks' monetary policies. Helping to improve the world population's knowledge is a small contribution towards empowering the people of this planet and strengthening democracy. Before you start the simulation there are some facts you will need to know: The President in this game has more powers than is usually the case in democracies, and thus you will not need to make political deals to have your budget approved. In reality you cannot simulate policies three times a year nor can you continue to change the interest rates, even after joining the EURO Zone after 1999. In this simulation you are the decision-maker both for the Government and for the Central Bank. However, both can stop you if your policies are considered counter-productive.


The Author

The software is the result of many years of research. The implementation in form of a world-wide accesible software is my personal life project. My name is Anthony Atherton and I really would appreciate any comments, feedback and constructive criticism. Please find our more about me on the topic Author


1.2 The Computer Model



This simulation is based on a fuzzy logic mathematical model which comprises over 100 economic indicators (see the Appendix for an overview). These indicators are variables which are interrelated and weighted according to their macroeconomic effect on the economy. The indicators of our model vary according to the interaction between the various economic indicators within the economy as a whole, viewed as a closed system with a finite number of variables. The economic variables are interrelated and can lead to extreme volatility. These excesses must be counter-balanced by sound policies that should help to stabilize the economic cycle. You can influence policy in the following areas:


- Monetary Policies
- Fiscal Policies
- Currency and Commodity Reserves


Most indicators are influenced by your policies but not all of them. International economies cannot be influenced; currencies and commodities can only be slightly influenced. All other national indicators provide you with invaluable information on the health of your economy. Note: This model is not scientifically proven and must, therefore, be seen as an attempt to simulate a developed economy by basing itself on a mathematical economic model designed to simulate reality as much as possible.


1.3 Microeconomics vs. Macroeconomics



No microeconomic simulation makes sense without the "big picture", i.e. Macroeconomics. The focus of this simulation is Macroeconomics. Here are two definitions of both terms which appear frequently in this User Guide:



1.4 First Steps



The simulation starts in the year 1980 and lasts until 2100, if you manage to stay in that long. The country has just relieved itself of a not-so-popular president, who has guided it through times of economic boom and bust caused by many factors.
You have been elected to guide the country and provide stability as well as growth in what can be considered to be a socially and politically demanding society. The poor wish to better their lives, the middle-class to sustain and improves theirs and the richer classes, of course, wish to stay rich. The public deficit or government debt is, however, not as flexible as one could wish, and you will need to keep your budget balanced if you wish to join the Common Market and the EURO currency in 1999. Your population wants more benefits; the industrial and business sectors want more tax cuts, and your budget cannot be squeezed in both directions. You, as President, will have to decide who shall prevail.

In order to quantify your progress, there is a point system (see the chapter on "Points and Ranking"), which will also appear in the simulation's "Entry" page (/index.php), if you reach the Top 10.
The simulation lasts up to 120 years ­ from 1980 until 2100 ­ and the longer you stay in power and successfully run the economy, the more points you will gather on your travels through the 20th and 21st centuries.



2 The 4 Phase Simulation



The simulation itself is based on a 4-Phase model. Each year comprises four sections from which information can be retrieved or in which fiscal or monetary policies can be made:

· Facts
· Policies
· Simulation
· Confirm


Note: When you login initially, you will automatically begin at the "MyAccount" section. Please click on the "Facts" section in order to begin the simulation.

Every New Year begins with a section called "Facts". You can then choose to go to "Policies" if you wish to implement a new strategy straight away; or you can go first to "Simulation", which is what we would advise. By going directly to "Simulation" you do not use any of your simulation credits. Only if you go to "Policies" and then press the "Simulate" button do you use one of your three available credits. You cannot complete a year without at least going through the "Simulation" and "Confirm" phases.
The simulation consists of different sections (or phases), subsections and columns with different indicators:

Further information concerning each phase can be retrieved in Chapter 4, "Step By Step, Phase By Phase".



3 The Simulation's Economic Indicators



All indicators measure the state of different economic factors. They will help you to sail through the sometimes foggy waters of the economic situation as it develops.
Like the well-known butterfly effect, a small development in one area may soon have a major effect on the whole economy. The economic indicators are intended as a guide and may even indicate how your economy will develop over the next year or two. They cannot, however, provide you with indications of long-term trends, and cannot predict the development of international events over which you have practically no influence. Nor can they predict the pricing of commodities or currencies.