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ROLESIA: YEAR 1991  
POINTS: 2136
POLLS: 54.76 %
 
No more simulations available!
 
 
 Current Year  1992 Outlook e)  Indicators & Analyses
 
National Indicators 
 
 GDP: 1.93 % 
 Inflation: 0.38 % 
 Unemployment: 8.49 % 
 Development: 101.16 % 
 Public Deficit: 68.46 % 
 Budget Balance: -4.25 % 
 Wages/h: 15.63 €/h (16.97 $)
 Industry Sentiment: 104.05 % 
 Business Confidence: 104.36 % 
 Consumer Sentiment: 113.38 % 
 Industrial Export Quota: 18.56 % 
 Housing Starts: 105.9 % 
 Vehicle Ownership: 75.33 % 
 
Foreign Exchange Reserves 
 
 Dollar Reserves 34.01 Bln $ 
 Euro Reserves 140.28 Bln € 
 Gold Reserves 3499 Tonnes  97 Bln $
 Strategic Oil Reserves 100 Mln Barrils  3 Bln $
   Total Assets  329 Bln $ 
 
Real Estate 
 
 Housing Starts 105.9 % 
 House Price Index 128.9 % 
 
World Markets 
 
 US GDP: 0.07 % 
 US Inflation: 1.64 % 
 US Interest Rates: 2.56 % 
 US Wages/h: 18.55 $/h 
 World GDP: 2.62 % 
 
Market Data 
 
 €/$ Exchange Rate: 1.0855 €/$ 
 Gold $/oz: 697.80 $ 
 Oil: 21.84 $/Barril (20.12 €)
 Commodity Index: 112.1 
 Petrol: 1.04 €/l 
 Stock Exchange (RSE): 16815.5 
 
Current Data...
 
 
National Indicators 
 
 GDP:  2.59 %  
 Inflation:  2.01 %  
 Unemployment: 8.985 %  
 Delta Employment:   -242560  
 Wage Increases:  1.98 %  
 Wage Increases (Real):   -0.03 %  
 Public Deficit:  61.99 %  
 Industry Sentiment:  109.87 %  + 5.82 
 Business Confidence:  103.83 %  - 0.53 
 Consumer Sentiment:  113.57 %  + 0.19 
 Industrial Export Quota:  18.04 %  - 0.52 
 House Price Index: 133.47    3.5 % 
 Money Supply (M3): 5.57 %  - 3.5 
 Investment Indicator: 6.21 %  + 0.2 
 Vehichle Ownership:  70.30 %  
 Development:  98.64 %  
 Productivity:  0.61 %  
 €/$ Exchange Rate:  1.3925  + 28.3% 
 
Interest Rate Trends 
 
 Real Interest:  2.99 %  
 Current Interest Rates: 5.00 % 
 Market Rates (Taylor Rule):  4.35 %   -0.65%
 
Budget Balance 
 
  Budget Surplus (y/y):  + 64.67 Billion   2.1%  
 
 
 
IndicatorsCurrent (1991)Outlook (1992)Outlook (1993)
Public Deficit 68.5 % 62.0 % 59.3 %
Budget Balance -4.3 % 2.1 % 1.4 %
IBI 104.0 % 109.9 % 110.7 %
Unemployment 8.5 % 9.0 % 9.3 %
GDP 1.9 % 2.6 % 2.1 %
Inflation 0.4 % 2.0 % 1.2 %
Development 101.2 % 98.6 % 102.5 %
 
 
  FED Minutes (MANUAL) 

FEDERAL RESERVE (RECOMMENDATION):

 Interest Rates should be lowered to at least 4.25 %
 
  Analysts 

Weak US Economy: The biggest economy in the world is weak. A weak export market may be the result
Bundesbank: Commodities strong rise in price! This can result in higher inflation
Bundesbank: Real Interest is above 2%. This can brake economic growth. If possible lower Interest Rates
Negative Real Income: Real Wages are falling! This can have a negative effect on the Consumer Confidence
USD Volatility can seriously harm economy
Pensions are serioulsy underfunded. The Pension Insurance Rate must be increased to 19.57 %
Bankruptcy Levels are high! Lower interest rates or relieve businesses from taxes!
  
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